Often activists trying to do something, or stop something, will focus on the worst-case scenario. Gun control opponents invite us to think of all of the countries where guns have been confiscated and fascism followed. If we don't give up fossil fuels, we will kill the environment.
Hyperbole and exaggeration belong in advertisements for cologne and used cars. In discussing serious issues and what to do about them, you should be wary of those things. Let me explain why, in three short paragraphs.
1. You are being led to a radical view of a problem that is poorly supported by evidence. Eating less meat might be good for you and for the planet, but is eating meat really going to "kill the planet"?
2. You are being led to oppose a good idea by an appeal to fear. Sure, you could be a victim of a violent home invasion. Sure, having a gun nearby could help. How do you know? What are the odds?
3. You are being distracted from things that have a higher chance of happening.
I may return to these topics in future posts, if anyone is interested.
Showing posts with label gun control. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gun control. Show all posts
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Thinking About Guns Like a Sociologist
Yes, that might be my dumbest title ever, but it does reflect my change in focus. The place I was blogging for, Film Annex, decided to take a break from blogging for a time, so no more posts about education and social change in Afghanistan. For now. On to gun control.
The next few posts will introduce some tools that activists can use to make their efforts to persuade and inform a bit more effective. In my blog Building Better Nonprofits, I sometimes describe brainstorming tools.
Gun control is still in the news. There are dedicated activists on both sides of the issue, with the Brady Center and the National Rifle Association (NRA) being the big players. Well, the mainstream media outlets tend to come down on the anti-gun side of the debate, if you believe the more paranoid opponents of gun control. Whether there is something to that claim is a matter for sociological investigation - Are media stories systematically biased for or against gun control and how would you know?
Statistics on gun control get bandied about quite a bit. This post will not repeat any of those statistics, but future posts will. This post just offers a few general observations about how to use sociological thinking when confronted with statistics on gun violence, gun control, and related matters.
States with concealed carry laws tend to have lower violent crime rates than states that do not require concealed carry. Is this true? The statistics I promised not to use will not reveal the answer really. Here is why? We are only looking at an association between two things - whether you are legally allowed to carry a concealed firearm in the state and the rate of violent crime. Other factors need to be considered before any real conclusions can be drawn. Do you know what I'm thinking of? Consider the possibilities for a moment before reading on.
So, here are some other factors that could affect the "relationship" I noted above:
1. There is not much you can really learn from a snapshot of the data. Was crime going down or up over a number of years, and in what states? When did THOSE states pass laws allowing concealed carry.
2. What is the poverty rate? Poverty is often associated with crime and other socially undesirable behaviors.
3. What percentage of the population is between, oh, 16 and 35, and male? I think that is the most crime-prone segment of the population.
4. Has the 16-34 male population been increasing or decreasing?
5. And this should be obvious - How many people are actually carrying? The rate, say 1 per 148 people, is even more important but I know most people don't jump right to thinking of rates and percentages.
6. What is the overall rate of gun ownership? Has it been going up or down? Those two questions probably crossed your mind as well.
Just as an aside, gun ownership is growing and violent crime in the United States has plummeted over the past 20 years. Is there a connection there? After reading this post I hope you aren't too quick to offer an answer.
Gun-related statistics can be used to say just about anything. Right? More on that topic next time...complete with numbers this time!
The next few posts will introduce some tools that activists can use to make their efforts to persuade and inform a bit more effective. In my blog Building Better Nonprofits, I sometimes describe brainstorming tools.
Gun control is still in the news. There are dedicated activists on both sides of the issue, with the Brady Center and the National Rifle Association (NRA) being the big players. Well, the mainstream media outlets tend to come down on the anti-gun side of the debate, if you believe the more paranoid opponents of gun control. Whether there is something to that claim is a matter for sociological investigation - Are media stories systematically biased for or against gun control and how would you know?
Statistics on gun control get bandied about quite a bit. This post will not repeat any of those statistics, but future posts will. This post just offers a few general observations about how to use sociological thinking when confronted with statistics on gun violence, gun control, and related matters.
States with concealed carry laws tend to have lower violent crime rates than states that do not require concealed carry. Is this true? The statistics I promised not to use will not reveal the answer really. Here is why? We are only looking at an association between two things - whether you are legally allowed to carry a concealed firearm in the state and the rate of violent crime. Other factors need to be considered before any real conclusions can be drawn. Do you know what I'm thinking of? Consider the possibilities for a moment before reading on.
So, here are some other factors that could affect the "relationship" I noted above:
1. There is not much you can really learn from a snapshot of the data. Was crime going down or up over a number of years, and in what states? When did THOSE states pass laws allowing concealed carry.
2. What is the poverty rate? Poverty is often associated with crime and other socially undesirable behaviors.
3. What percentage of the population is between, oh, 16 and 35, and male? I think that is the most crime-prone segment of the population.
4. Has the 16-34 male population been increasing or decreasing?
5. And this should be obvious - How many people are actually carrying? The rate, say 1 per 148 people, is even more important but I know most people don't jump right to thinking of rates and percentages.
6. What is the overall rate of gun ownership? Has it been going up or down? Those two questions probably crossed your mind as well.
Just as an aside, gun ownership is growing and violent crime in the United States has plummeted over the past 20 years. Is there a connection there? After reading this post I hope you aren't too quick to offer an answer.
Gun-related statistics can be used to say just about anything. Right? More on that topic next time...complete with numbers this time!
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